August 9

TIFA polls: Raila’s popularity on the rise as Ruto maintains lead

Thursday, May 5th, 2022 19:05 | By
Raila Odinga with William Ruto. PHOTO/ COURTESY
Raila Odinga with William Ruto. PHOTO/ COURTESY

Azimio la Umoja - One Kenya Alliance's Presidential candidate Raila Odinga's popularity has continued to rise, with 32 per cent of Kenyan voters preferring him, according to the latest TIFA opinion polls.

The polls have placed Kenya Kwanza's candidate William Ruto on the frontline, with 39 per cent of Kenyans supporting him, an addition of one per cent in six months.

On the other hand, Raila's popularity has risen from 23 per cent in November to 27 per cent in February to the current 32 per cent, according to the pollster's April survey.

The popularities of Musalia Mudavadi and Kalonzo Musyoka, who have since dropped their Presidential bids have staggered between one and two per cent, before dropping to zero after they joined Ruto and Raila's camps respectively.

With three months to go to the general elections, 16 per cent of the Kenyan voters are still undecided on the preferred Presidential candidate, a drop from 23 per cent in November 2021. 12 per cent did not reveal their presidential candidate of choice.

"Notwithstanding the fact that some 47 people have declared that they will seek the presidency, nearly all Kenyans who have made up their minds say that they intend to vote for either DP William Ruto (39%) or former PM Raila Odinga (32%). However, the larger proportion who either indicated they are yet to decide (16%) or who declined to answer this question (12%) suggests that the actual outcome remains yet to be determined," the researchers noted.

Nearly half of those stating they remain undecided as to whom to vote for as president say they need to know more about the policies/manifestos of the candidates (35 per cent), with only a few saying they are waiting for the running-mates to be announced (four per cent), with about the same proportion indicating they will depend on advice from family, friends, or respected elders/leaders (three per cent).

Each of the leading candidates is most popular in their ‘native’ zones: Ruto in Central Rift (70 per cent) and Raila in Nyanza (56 per cent).

Ruto’s second most popular zone is Mt Kenya (53 per cent) whilst Raila’s is Lower Eastern (41 per cent).

"Again, whether such zonal distribution of support will change after they have each announced their running-mates remains to be seen," the pollster said.

While the support for Odinga has increased overall (by 5%) since TIFA’s February survey, he has gained the most in Lower Eastern (by 24 per cent) as well as in Nyanza (by eight per cent).

But he has also seen an increase in support in Coast, Northern, and Western (six per cent in each). His support level dropped by six per cent in Central Rift.

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