Cost of misdiagnosis and wrong remedy in politics
American actor and writer; Grouch Marx once described politics as the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedy.
Remedies in politics have to do with public interest-driven allocation and distribution of resources. Marx’s description does allude to misplaced diagnosis of areas that need to be resourced and skewed allocation of resources.
Indeed, more often, unscrupulous politicians riding on populism attend to their privileged interest as opposed to the interest of the electorate. The blame has always gone to the electorate and I remember sometimes last year, one popular musician branded Kenyans as ‘wajinga’ for the choices we have made in choosing those to lead.
However, there is also another strand of incorrect diagnosis and the wrong remedy. This second one, manifest itself during the electioneering period and is characterised by the false illusion that top politicians, especially presidential candidates have of an imminent victory, even when the odds are insurmountable. This illusion is almost always buttressed by vocal lieutenants whose interests are almost always to ride on the presidential candidates to win the seats they set their eyes on.
With Raila Odinga as a presidential candidate for instance, a few top leaders in his stronghold vying on ODM will be sure of winning their desired seats. The same is true of the Deputy President Willaim Ruto’s lieutenants who understand pretty well that in areas where UDA is popular, all they have to do is clinch the UDA ticket.
The push by OKA lieutenants to have one of their principals should therefore be situated within this context. The likes of Senator Cleophas Malalah and Ayub Savula are a lot more vocal than senators from Kalonzo Musyoka’s strongholds, because in the Western region, Raila’s ODM has significant influence which means that Musalia Mudavadi’s support for Raila would threaten their own candidatures in various positions.
In fact, these guys are spot on in their diagnosis, the interest of the Western people notwithstanding. It is the reason they would support Mudavadi’s wrong diagnosis of his chances and incorrect remedy for a situation that if not properly diagnosed or remedied, would send him to political oblivion.
History tells us that in two previous elections, he has made incorrect diagnosis and applied the wrong remedy. He ended up losing his Sabatia seat in 2002 and thoroughly got walloped in his 2013 presidential bid. Today he is listening to the wise counsel of his lieutenants led by Malalah and clearly the advice is “wewe kaa ngumu.”
The folly of this advice should be unpacked. “Kaa ngumu” could mean that he stays put and runs as a presidential candidate and the results of this are easily predictable. It could also mean he stays put until he can get a better bargaining leverage, which would mean that his interest and those of his lieutenants are secured.
And lastly, the most self-centred misdiagnosis of the trouble is to stay put and run as a lone-ranger, force a run off and then negotiate post election, for their own self-interest and with that, throw the voters in their strongholds under the bus. Indeed, presidential candidates straddle this thin line between their own chances and what their lieutenants make them believe.
OKA principals are not clear on what they want but are just in there, looking for what Marx would call trouble. The diagnosis cannot be more wrong for the previous Nasa principals in OKA whose diagnosis of the trouble tells them that they can’t stand on their own.
Unlike Raila and Ruto, these principals have got to be together and even in their togetherness, there is a sense of conspicuous indecisiveness. Unlike the DP and Raila, they seem to lack the political capital to attract support from outside their traditional loyalists.
Increasingly, we discern that this group that has failed to provide Kenyans with a formidable third force. Therein could be the conundrum and the longer they take to make that critical decision, the more their stock will diminish and the higher the chances lof both Raila and Ruto raising the profile of other big names in their backyards.
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