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Ethiopia’s Abiy should resign after rout by Tigray rebels

Monday, July 5th, 2021 00:00 | By
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Photo/Courtesy

Despite sending a combined force of Ethiopia’s federal troops backed by Eritrea’s army into Tigray to oust the forces of the Tigrayan Defence Force, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed suffered a humiliating defeat and was forced to retreat hastily from the regional capital of Mekelle.

Tigray’s rebels beat two of the largest and most battle-hardened armies in Africa, Ethiopian and Eritrean.

The fearsome reputation of these two armies has been debunked. Egypt must be taking notes with glee.

Ethiopia bombed Tigrayan towns during the war that lasted seven months.  The rebels, who now control most of Tigray, vowed to hunt down the invading armies as they scrambled out of Tigrayan territory.

Abiy invaded Tigray in November 2020 to oust the ruling regional government, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), whom it accused of attacking the federal government’s military bases.

Abiy’s troops quickly overran Mekelle, installed a caretaker administration, and declared victory. Clearly, he spoke too soon.

There’s egg all over Abiy’s face over this defeat. For months, the African Union (AU) and his western allies pleaded with him to call a ceasefire and seek a negotiated solution. He ignored them.

Where does Ethiopia go from here? First, TPLF and Abiy are now antagonists.  Tigray will never again take instructions from Addis Ababa. This victory by Tigrayans is the equivalent of a declaration of independence.

Secondly, even if Tigray does not break away, especially because the international community is likely to exert maximum pressure to keep Ethiopia intact, Abiy will be negotiating from a very weak position. TPLF will drive the bargain they want.

Thirdly, the victory by TPLF against Abiy will embolden other restive regions in Ethiopia.

Of particular concern is the Oromo Liberation Front’s long-standing struggle to “liberate” Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest and most populous federal state. It is barely a year ago when the death of one of Oromo’s icons, 34-year old musician  Hachalu Hundessa, triggered violent clashes that left hundreds dead, leading to one of the most brutal government crackdowns since Abiy came to power. Tensions are still simmering.

Fourth, Abiy’s war with Tigray has badly exposed the AU. That the AU was completely ineffective to even broker a ceasefire with the leader who hosts the AU headquarters in his capital is so unthinkable. 

The AU needs do a major introspection of what is stands for. 

Fifth, it is now clear that Abiy’s “peace pact” with Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki was never for the purpose of bringing hostilities between the two countries to a close.

It was actually a cynical pact between two warmongers to close ranks against their common enemy, Tigray.

On that basis alone, Abiy has tarnished the Nobel Peace Prize and the Nobel Committee has no alternative but withdraw it.

As for the international community, there’ll have to be an accounting of all the atrocities that the invading armies subjected innocent Tigrayan people to.

Abiy’s peace and democratic credentials lie in tatters. He sought to centralise power around himself through strong arm tactics.

This has badly backfired. It looks more like he will be the leader midwifing what looks to be a very untidy disintegration of Ethiopia.

However, this there’s still a slim chance to change this trajectory. It’s unlikely, though, that the person who got Ethiopia into this mess has the gravitas, humility and comportment to lead a national conversation to prevent the country’s break up. 

Abiy should do the honourable thing and resign. This will pave the way for a new leader to walk Ethiopia back from where it is tottering — at the edge of the cliff. [email protected]

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