Intra-coalition rivalry will cost KKA Kiambu seat

Intra-coalition rivalry is emerging as the next big factor in the run up to the August elections. There is no doubt the more candidates a coalition has spread all over the higher the likelihood of their ‘get out and vote’ strategies will benefit the presidential candidate. 

However, when there are more candidates from the same camp contesting the same seat, certainly intra-coalition rivalry will create a smooth pathway for rivals to win. This explains why major political formations are racing against time to forestall intra-coalition contest before the ballot papers are printed. 

Leadership in the two leading coalitions in the August contest—Kenya Kwanza and Azimio-One Kenya—are working to ensure they prevail on candidates with less chances of winning to drop bids and also to avert any fall out that might be detrimental to the chances of consolidating the presidential votes. 

Well, whereas casualties will be there in both coalitions, Kenya Kwanza seems to be having a tight situation in Kiambu county. Unlike elsewhere, Kiambu presents not just a question of intra-coalition rivalry, but a contest of four very solid leaders from Mt Kenya region. Heavyweights former Governor William Kabogo of Tujibebe Wakenya party, Moses Kuria (Chama Cha Kazi)and UDA’s Senator Kimani Wamatangi are contesting against each other making their rival and Jubilee Party-sponsored incumbent Governor James Nyoro a happy man. 

Wamatangi has a head-start because he is on the same party ticket as their coalition  presidential candidate William Ruto (UDA). The conundrum, therefore, lies in the fact that any delicate arrangement meant to secure Kiambu for Kenya Kwanza is likely to cause acrimony, especially if it favours Wamatangi, and the consequence can cost Ruto. 

Already there are indications heavyweights with own parties feel disenfranchised within Kenya Kwanza, and they are rocking the coalition from within. Critics have argued that some of them have seen the end of the road for Kenya Kwanza and the sentiments by Kabogo, especially when he went back to his political home turf speak of a sinking Kenya Kwanza ship.

There are also sentiments that draw from the last elections when critics averred that within the Jubilee machinery there are individuals who were keen to knock out leaders who would have emerged solid kingpins in 2022. Kiambu has two leaders who, by political clout, are big in Mt Kenya—those who probably know if the Kenya Kwanza ticket wins and they don’t win the governor race their political stock will dwindle and probably their careers will be in jeopardy. But a closer reading of the political unfolding shows there could be a bigger subplot to it. 

In fact, as Azimio is gaining traction and Kenya Kwanza losing ground, top leaders from Mt Kenya are facing the reality of being knocked out from within by folks in UDA who have since realised 2022 is gone and they have to knock out any would-be rival. 

You look at post 2022 and you realise if UDA does not win then it will be hard for it to galvanise the Mountain if either Kuria or Kabogo wins Kiambu. Kabogo as a governor will vanquish UDA and Ruto’s running mate Rigathi Gachagua will be collateral damage unless Kenya Kwanza forms the next government.

With Azimio-One Kenya presidential candidate Raila Odinga and running mate Martha Karua galvanising the region’s leaders and seeming to be gaining momentum with each passing day, UDA knows the end is nigh. Therefore, their logical game plan is to focus on post-2022 and that explains the onslaught on big name Mt Kenya leaders who are strong and have popular political parties. 

We have only 50 days to go, but it is not over until the winner is declared.

—The writer is a PhD candidate in Political Communication and Media Studies