TIFA: Support for Kenya Kwanza declines by 14%
Kenya Kwanza Alliance is facing continued headwinds according to a new poll conducted by research firm Trends and Insights Africa (TIFA).
The poll released on September 21, 2023, indicates that President William Ruto-led alliance's support currently stands at 35 per cent from 49 per cent in March, representing a decline of 14 per cent.
On the other hand, Azimio la Umoja - One Kenya coalition party's support declined by 12 per cent.
According to TIFA, the declines reflect an increase in the proportion expressing support for neither coalition which has nearly tripled since March (from 13% to 36%).
"Kenya Kwanza lost even more support for the last three months than did Azimio la Umoja (from 49% to 35% = 14%), as compared to Azimio la Umoja (from 40% to 28% = 12%)," TIFA said.
Meanwhile, the poll also suggests fewer than half of all Kenyans(39 per cent) are pro-government, the same figure also represents Kenyans who decline to identify with whatever party and 22 per cent are pro-opposition.
"39% indicate support for the Kenya Kwanza government, a figure equal to those who decline to identify with any political party or coalition. On the other, the Opposition currently attracts fewer than a quarter of all Kenyans (22%), though whether these figures will remain constant as the Government begins its second year in power remains to be seen," TIFA said.
At the same time, UDA remains the dominant political party with its level of popularity being nearly twice that of the Opposition’s ODM.
"All others combined attract less than half of that of ODM. However, a substantial proportion declines to identify with any party either by claiming to be “undecided” or more emphatically declaring they support “none”, or simply not answering the question at all.
"This figure stands in sharp contrast to the much smaller figure obtained in TIFA’s last pre-2022 election survey (12%) when the level of partisan political engagement was (obviously) higher," TIFA stated.
Across the country, UDA is strongest in Central Rift and Mt. Kenya region while ODM is popular in Nyanza and South Rift.
Tifa said over the last two years, there has been a rise in UDA support and the erratic rise and fall of those either undecided or declining to identify with any party.
"However, most recently – since March – it is the decline of support for both UDA and ODM (from 45% to 34% for the former and from 29% to 18% for the latter), and the dramatic increase in the proportion of those unaligned (from 14% to 40%)."