El Nino delay is normal, says weatherman

Farmers in Nyeri have raised questions over the prediction by the weatherman that the region will start receiving rains beginning this week. However, the county is yet to experience any rains.

However, the County Director of Meteorological Services, John Muiruri, has told farmers to continue preparing their lands in readiness for planting. According to him, the delay was normal and, therefore, even those who had planted should not be worried about losing their seeds as the expected rains would be more than enough. “You know it (rains) can have a little delay but we had an update of the second and third week (of October). So I think it’s not very far and anytime it can start raining,” he said.

Least amount

Last month, Muiruri had briefed the media that parts of the county were expected to receive up to 600mm of downpour during the first and second week of October and therefore an urgent need for preparation for such unforeseen occurrences like storm waters, floods and landslides.

He further disclosed that some parts of the county like Kieni East would receive up to 600mm of rain while others like Othaya, Mukurwe-ini, and Nyeri Central would receive between 500 to 600 mm of rain.
Among areas expected to receive the least amount of less than 300 mm rain include Mathira and Mugunda ward in Kieni West. “Caution (is needed) as we are going to have enhanced rainfall so preparedness is very important. They (both county government and residents) have to prepare adequately in all the sectors like roads, lands in matters of soil erosion.

We have to prepare because the rains are more than what we get,” he further said.
Muiruri nevertheless downplayed the extent of destruction to be expected from the rains assuring residents it would pale in shadow to what was witnessed in 1997.

He was also quick to challenge farmers to take advantage of the rains by putting as much of their land under food crops to cushion them against unforeseen times.

But when pressed to shed some light on why the rains were taking longer than had been predicted, the official downplayed the fears insisting that some parts of Western Kenya have already started receiving the rains.

He also said that just like the normal seasonal rains, the El Nino phenomenon would not be instantaneous but gradual before picking up in intensity as days’ progress.

“It is not true that the El Nino rains have totally failed. There are areas like Western Kenya where the rains have already started. But you know it (rains) has to start gradually and so farmers should not be worried. Rains are coming,” stated the official.

According to a Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) report dated August 30, 2023, the climate outlook for the October-November-December period indicates the whole country is likely to experience enhanced rainfall, a departure from what has been the norm for the last few years.

The high precipitation will be driven by warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, indicating the presence of El Nino conditions.

Nyeri is one of the counties expected to experience heavy rains throughout the three-month cycle.

Continous rainfall

According to the report, “Highlands East of the Rift Valley, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kiambu Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Nairobi and the Eastern parts of Laikipia will likely experience rainfall throughout the season.

Rainfall amounts are expected to be above the season’s long-term average,” says the report. “The rainfall is expected to be well distributed in both time and space,” continues the outlook.

Heavy continuous rainfall is also expected in the Lake Victoria Basin region, Kisii, Elgeyo Marakwet, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, West Pokot, Vihiga, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok counties.

The rains will begin in September before picking up in October and will prevail on until January.
In the north-western counties of Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu, the Met Department announced rainfall above the long-term average for the season is expected.

“In the highlands, east of the Rift Valley, Nairobi included, rainfall is expected throughout the season above the season’s long-term average. The rainfall will be well distributed in terms of space,” says the weather report.

In the lowlands, above-long-term average for the season is expected while in the northeastern counties, occasional rainfall of an amount slightly above average for the season will be experienced.

Wajir and Mandera counties will get the highest rainfall which will be occasioned by widespread flooding.
Other areas likely to experience flooding include Nyakach, Nyando, lower areas of River Nzoia, Winam Gulf and lower areas of River Sondu in Western Kenya.

In the Rift Valley region, floods are expected to occur in Gilgil, Narok town and Suswa while the coastal towns of Mwatate, Tana River delta and Mwatate have also been identified as high-risk areas.

Kenya experienced one of her most memorable El Nino phenomena in 1997 followed by similar ones in 2006, 2015 and 2019.

However, the 1997 El Nino rains were conspicuously enhanced due to a high positive El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index which stood at 2.6.

This year’s phenomena is expected to be different due to its low El Nino index which stands at 2.0.
During El Niño, the SSTs over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual.