Raila faces stiff c*mpet*tion for AUC position

Opposition leader and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s chances in his bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship position, could suffer a setback following increased support buildng around Somalia’s candidate, Fawzia Yusuf Adam.

Somalia’s Foreign Minister, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, disclosed yesterday that the Organisation of Islamic Co-operation (OIC), with close to 30 African member States will rally behind the Somalia candidate for the position of chairperson of AUC for the 2025–2028 term.

“The communiqué will also endorse Somalia’s nomination of Ms. Fawzia Yusuf Adam for Chairperson of the African Union Commission for the period 2025-2028,” the Ministry’s statement said.

The statement follows a preparatory meeting of foreign ministers for the 15th session of the OIC’s Islamic Summit Conference, held in Banjul, Gambia, on May 2 and 3, that focused on “Promoting Unity and Solidarity through Dialogue for Sustainable Development.”

 Fiqi said it was a big win for Somalia, given OIC has nearly 30 African member states.

“Somalia appreciates and is grateful for the support of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which has nearly 30 members from Africa, for taking note and endorsing Somalia’s nomination of Fawzia Yusuf Adam for the position of AU Chairperson for 2025-2028,” Fiqi said.

Somalia formally began campaigning for its former Foreign Minister, Fawzia Yusuf Adam, to become the next AUC Chairperson in February this year in a move that placed her in competition with Raila.

Djibouti would later announce the candidacy of its Foreign Minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, for the same position.

While Raila may have initially seemed comfortably ahead of the pack in the race for AUC Chairmanship, the latest twist of OIC adds a new dimension in the build-up to the battle that is shaping into a showdown like no other.

The OIC is an alliance of 57 countries where Islam plays a significant role. These countries include those where Islam is the state religion, those where Muslims are the majority of the population, and some where Muslims are a minority but play a significant role.

Special bond

In Africa OIC members include Algeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Gabon, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Togo and Tunisia.

Yesterday, Prof Macharia Munene, a lecturer in International Relations at the United States International University (USIU)-Africa warned that Kenya should not sit on her laurels in the push for Raila’s bid.

“Basically the OIC member States have some special bond that brings them together and could complicate matters for Kenya. The country needs to heighten its lobbying among AU members’ states in the wake of statements from OIC,” Prof Macharia told the People Daily last evening.

Should Fawzia clinch the support of all or a majority of the above countries, it will be almost an unassailable victory for the Somalia candidate considering that the Africa Union membership is 55 member states.

Elections are conducted by a secret ballot and a two-thirds majority of member states are eligible to vote.

The 2021- 2024 elections of senior leadership for the AU Commission also saw the elections of commissioners which was undertaken by the Executive Council.

So where are Raila’s chances? Analysts speculate that his assertive demeanour and history of organising demonstrations in Kenya might deter some African Heads of Htate, which could prefer a less confrontational figure for the AUC chairmanship.

Professor Fred Ogola, the leader of Operation Linda Jamii believes some heads of states in Africa might find Raila’s strong personality as unfit to hold the AUC chairmanship.

“You know the African Union Council chairman is the CEO of African Presidents.  Remember he will be in charge of peace keeping and development there… For instance in DR Congo which is having issues with Rwanda will Kagame be comfortable with Raila in charge or being the key person for Africa’s peace where even budgets for peace negotiations might go to his office,” Ogola reckons.

Ogola is of the view that Raila’s character as a leader who is “pushy” based on his “record of organising demonstrations in Kenya” could scare other leaders and deny him chances of ascending to the helm of AUC.

 “The persona of Raila can also be his own weakness in the race for the post because he has been known as a very strong Opposition leader. In fact he looks like the strongest Opposition leader in Africa. Tell me which country has a stronger Opposition leader than Raila. (Julius) Malema is trying in South Africa but he doesn’t reach him.  If you are the Head of State of Rwanda and Rwanda has a conflict with DRC, do you want Raila to be key in that conversation?” posed Ogola.

For Raila to succeed, he said the best way is for Kenya to lobby for other East African partner States to convince their candidates to stand down for the former premier.

Convince other candidates

Kenya’s government has urged leaders to put aside their political differences and rally behind Raila’s candidacy for the position of African Union Commission chairperson.

Government Spokesperson Isaac Mwaura affirmed that President William Ruto’s administration was fully behind Raila’s bid for the top AU job.

“If he gets an opportunity to serve us at the AU as the chair, we as Kenyans forget all our differences and rally behind a fellow Kenyan. If Raila has expressed interest, we would rather have him there because when he is there the interests of Kenya are taken care of. We as a government fully support his candidature,” he said.

It now boils down on how to convince other candidates from the region to stand down for Raila especially with the development of OIC’s support for Fawzia Yusuf Adam who is fast becoming Raila’s strongest competitor in the race.