Weatherman predicts more rain countrywide

Expect more, heavier and intense rains today, tomorrow and through this weekend, the Meteorological Department has cautioned Kenyans.

Despite May naturally marking the reduction of the “Long Rains” season over several parts of the country, the latest outlook for the month indicates that several parts of the country are likely to continue experiencing more rains.

The rains are also expected to continue in the Coastal region and the Western sector of the country where rainfall continues into June, added the weatherman.

Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) Director General, Dr David Gikungu confirmed to the People Daily yesterday that the forecast is correct, reminding the public to follow the weatherman’s cautionary measures.

“We are expecting that rainfall will continue in the entire month of May but at varying degrees depending on the regions,” Gikungu said, however, cautioning that this week particularly today and tomorrow, most parts of the country will experience enhanced rainfall. “That is what the forecast shows,” he stated.

“Happy May! As we start off the month, brace yourselves for some wet weather ahead,” the weatherman said on its website.

Heavy rainfall, Gikungu said, is expected to persist in the Highlands East/ West of Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley itself, the South-eastern lowlands, North-western & North-eastern. “Anticipate a surge in rainfall intensity across multiple regions of the country from Thursday through the weekend. Stay safe and dry, everyone,” he warned.

Nairobi, Kiambu, Muranga and Narok counties are particularly expected to see a surge in rain intensity according to the weatherman.

On Tuesday evening, while appearing on a local television station, Gikungu said occasional storms are also likely to be experienced. “The forecast for the next three months indicates that rainfall is expected over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, Central and South Rift Valley as well as the Coastal region,” he said.

The Highlands East of the Rift Valley including Nairobi County and parts of the South-eastern lowlands are likely to experience rainfall in May and remain generally cool and cloudy with occasional light rains in June and July, indicates the weatherman. “However, the rest of the country is expected to receive occasional rainfall in May and remain generally dry in June and July,” Gikungu said.

According to the latest weather outlook, the temperature is expected to be warmer than normal over the whole country during the forecast period with higher probabilities for warmer than average temperatures expected over the eastern half of the country.

April marked the peak of the long rains (March-April-May) season over most parts except over the Coastal region where the peak is expected in May.

“The month was characterised by severe storms over most parts of the country,” Gikungu said.

Agricultural production

The rainfall forecast for May 2024 is based on drop of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), SST gradients, and the expected evolution of global SST patterns as well as upper air circulation patterns on Kenyan rainfall.

Gikungu also indicated the heavy rainfall being witnessed across the country has various impacts, both negative and positive.

On the agriculture and food security for instance, the rains are likely to be conducive for agricultural production, especially in the high-potential counties of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria basin region as well as Central and Southern Rift where rainfall is expected to continue into the June-July-August season. “Farmers in these areas are encouraged to continue liaising with agricultural extension officers to get advice on appropriate land use management and hence maximise their crop yields,” he said.

Pasture and browse over the ASAL areas of Northern and South-eastern lowlands is expected to improve significantly.

However, pastoralists and relevant authorities are advised to conserve pasture as the season comes to an end to ensure their livestock have adequate feed to last till the next rainfall season.

On disaster management, the weatherman said there is a likelihood of flooding in low-lying areas and flood plains especially over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Coastal region as well as in poorly drained urban centres where rainfall is expected. This may affect school returning dates which were postponed to next week.