Worst of Covid yet to come, Kemri now warns Kenyans
Medical experts are warning Kenyans to brace themselves for turbulent times in the next four months unless the government strictly enforces Covid-19 containment measures stipulated by the Ministry of Health.
Should Kenyans not change their reckless behaviour and adhere to containment guidelines, medical experts are warning that the country could witness double the number of new infections and deaths in coming days.
In its latest report released last month, scientists at the Kenya Medical Research Institute (Kemri) warn that new variants of the virus could be spreading in the country.
“The impact of other events such as new variants could increase the positivity rate by more than 25 per cent, and case numbers and deaths would then exceed our predictions,” the report states.
News of the grim projections came on a day the country recorded 1,540 new infections from a sample size of 9,348 people, representing a 16.5 per cent positivity rate.
In his daily briefing yesterday, Health Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe stated that the last nine days had seen a rapid increase in the rate of infections, with Nairobi recording an increase of 5,718 cases, Kiambu (888), Nakuru (626), Machakos (414), Kajiado (199), Nyeri (100) and Kericho (58).
Kagwe also noted that 18 deaths had been reported during the last 24 hours, but only one had occurred during that period, with the rest having taken place earlier but reported within the period.
According to Kemri projections, between this month and June, when the situation is expected to stabilise, at least 16,800 Kenyans would be infected with the virus, with no less than 289 deaths.
In the worst case scenario, the scientists project the positivity rate to rise to 25 per cent during the period, making it the peak of the third wave.
“A worst-case scenario would be an increase in positivity rate by 50 per cent and resulting in an epidemic of similar magnitude to the second outbreak in the country,” the report warns.
This, therefore, means that the current average positivity rate of 22 per cent with 25 daily deaths and 1,127 infections would double.
But it’s not all gloom, with the arrival of the AstraZeneca vaccine offering a glimmer of hope for Kenyans.
Dr Robert Ayah, a member of the task force on Covid-19 vaccine deployment, yesterday advised that getting vaccinated and following the Ministry of Health protocols offered Kenyans the best protection mechanism.
“The possibility of serious complications for anyone who gets the virus, along with the public health consequences are strong reasons in favour of getting vaccinated,” Dr Ayah said.
He added the number of deaths and new infections would be controlled once a larger proportion of Kenyans above the age of 18 are vaccinated and adhere to safety protocols.
According to the Kemri projections, should Kenyans continue with their reckless behaviour of not wearing masks and failing to observe social distancing, the country will witness a high number of deaths between and the months of July and August, after which numbers would reduce drastically and rise slightly in October and November.
Community transmission
Likewise, new infections would reach fever pitch in July and August, before subsiding in September and October.
The country is likely to witness another sharp increase in infections in November and December.
The scientists warn that control of the situation was conditional on restrictions that reduce transmission remaining in place, and measures to reduce transmission in schools setting being implemented.
The warning came as reports emerged that the government ignored previous projections by Kemri scientists cautioning that the country would experience unprecedented surge in new infections and deaths resulting from Covid-19 by mid this month.
In its January 2021 projection, Kemri had warned against the rush to reopen schools and relaxation of protocols on wearing masks, social distancing, washing of hands and ban on large gatherings.
“Under the most plausible scenario, we project that the rate of Covid-19 case and death incidence will peak in mid-March 2021,” Kemri observed in its January prediction, sparking an uproar from government stalwarts, among them Education Cabinet secretary Prof George Magoha.
In his characteristic response, Magoha dismissed Kemri’s scientific projection as “mere hearsay” and told Kenyans to ignore the reports and instead go on with their lives.
“I am a top grade scientist with 43 years’ experience and the people I have trained are professors. I don’t listen to hearsay.
I believe I shall be alive tomorrow because I fully trust in God. There is no guarantee that you shall be alive tomorrow. Why do we always look at the bad side?” Magoha had stated.
Reports have also emerged that the current death figures being reported by the Ministry of Health may not be accurate since some cases in communities are being reported to the Ministry of Interior through national administration officials.
Yesterday, Director General of Health Dr Patrick Amoth declined to comment on the Kemri report as he had not seen it, but was in agreement that the current turbulence is likely to go on until May or June.
“This wave is likely to continue hitting us until the months of May and June. For us to get out of the situation, Kenyans must strictly adhere to the protocol guidelines we have issued. It is not a laughing matter,” Amoth told People Daily by telephone.
He also declined to comment on the impact likely to be made on the apparent sharp rise of new infections by the ongoing vaccination exercise.
Commenting on the latest development, Dr Loise Ombajo, the head of Infectious Diseases Unit at the Kenyatta National Hospital said the numbers are rising because the country is witnessing community transmission.
“At this point the suspicion is that we may have some of these variants circulating which may partially explain why we are seeing such a large spread of the disease, but we do not have exact figures at this point,” Ombajo told a local TV station.
Ombajo, a member of the National Emergency Response Committee on Coronavirus, disclosed that the government is mulling tightening containment measures, including imposing a lock down in the worst case scenario.
