Ring-fence the economy from General Election fever
This an election year. With the entry of 2022, the countdown to the polls in August has begun in earnest.
It is now conventional wisdom that an election year in Kenya means that the economy will be in doldrums, and will only start recovering well after the inauguration of the newly elected leaders and formation of a new government.
Kenya’s economy has had a very tough two years, driven to the edge of the cliff by the Covid pandemic.
In 2020, the economy ground to a complete standstill. Schools, entertainment places, churches, offices all closed.
A curfew was imposed which severely curtailed production in those business enterprises not affected by the shutdown.
Businesses collapsed like dominoes. People were laid off. People struggled hugely to survive.
The rampant Covid pandemic imposed its own crisis as people became sick, were hospitalised and many died.
By mid-2021, however, the pandemic was beginning to lessen somewhat. The government started relaxing the very stringent restrictions it has imposed at the onset of the pandemic.
As 2021 came to an end, the economy had started rebounding. All these gains are now threatened.
Kenya must do everything in its power to ring-fence the rebounding economy. This must be guarded jealously.
The country cannot afford another period of going back to the comatose economy that it is just fitfully emerging from.
This will be an onerous task and will not be the responsibility of any one group. The whole country must come together to achieve this.
The government must enforce security countrywide. Businesses need to feel secure and have confidence that there will not be general lawlessness during campaigns, voting, and results announcements.
Sectors like tourism that are just beginning to show signs of recovery badly need this environment.
Politicians are usually the worst culprits. To their credit, bar one or two, politicians generally seem to have tempered their tongues so far, eschewing the highly divisive and incendiary rhetoric they normally spew in campaigns.
This is the straight and narrow path that the National Cohesion and Integration Commission must police and enforce.
This will be the single most important dynamic impacting the economy during this period.
Citizens must refuse to engage in violence in support of politicians. Threats of violence or actual occurrence of violence, spooks the economy.
Without this dynamic, the economy is likely to hum along through 2022. Kenyans must refuse to be incited to violence because “the election was stolen” the code words used by politicians when they lose and want to call out their supporters to violent protest.
The media must be very circumspect during the election period. The media has been accused of fanning violence through incitement.
The media should provide a sober, sanitised platform for politicians to campaign and also as a channel to educate and create awareness on matters elections.
They must go out of their way to moderate temperatures which are already high. Don’t pour fuel into the fire.
Finally, the Independent Boundaries and Electoral Commission (IEBC) must run a credible poll.
This is not to say that losers will not protest even if the elections are credible. They will.
But if on the balance the election can be adjudged by independent and impartial arbiters to have been credible and verifiable, those who are defeated are seen for what they are – sore losers. It makes a world of difference.
A bungled election brings out all the demons that are usually lying latent during the electoral period in any country.
Once the genie is out of the bottle, its difficult put it back. Let 2007 demons remain buried.
There is so much pent up energy in the economy due to almost two years of bottled up production. It is fighting to burst through.
This pent up energy can drive growth through 2022 given the right environment. Kenyans must determine to do things differently this time round. —[email protected]
