Why coalitions hold the key to election victory
As political parties’ nominations edge closer to a conclusion, focus now turns to how the formations will address the burning issues facing the electorate ahead of the General Election.
While ethnicity in Kenyan politics continues to prevail in determining the electoral process, coalition making has become the critical factor guiding the main contenders aspiring for victory at the polls.
Azimio la Umoja One Kenya led by Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leader Raila Odinga made a major early step in crafting a coalition, with President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee party; after Deputy President William Ruto and his allies bolted to join the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
Initially, Ruto wanted to rally his troops and their supporters to advance his political ambitions under the UDA banner; but his main backers especially in the vote-rich Mt Kenya region, responding to election jitters, became wary and formed their political parties.
Adept in the art of coalition making, Raila in the meantime strengthened his base by attracting more political parties to Azimio. Realising that coalitions could be decisive in the game of numbers that dominates the elections, Ruto abandoned his initial plan and joined the fray.
His biggest catch was Amani National Congress (ANC) party leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetangula; who walked out of the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) to join Ruto in forming the Kenya Kwanza coalition, that now includes most of the Mt Kenya fringe parties.
Emboldened by the strong backing from President Uhuru’s Jubilee, Raila stepped up the hunt and enlisted the OKA parties including Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper and Gideon Moi’s Kanu. He had earlier roped in the Democratic Alliance Party (DAP) which enjoys big support in Western Kenya.
When the Registrar of Political Parties last week gazetted the Azimio-affiliated parties the list comprised 26 parties. This is certainly a formidable outfit that Ruto’s UDA-led Kenya Kwanza faces in the forthcoming elections.
With President Kenyatta joining the campaign trail in support of Azimio after the bitter fallout with his estranged deputy, the stage is set for an epic battle. How Ruto will attempt to go around this dazzling array of who-is-who in Kenyan politics in his quest for a win, remains to be seen.
What is certain is that he faces an uphill task, as Raila has now completed his game plan and is ready to launch his biggest political battle yet. Ruto is equally prepared and has marshalled his troops with well-oiled machinery for his campaign.
The next stage of this epic battle begins after the parties hand over the list of their nominees to the electoral body. The nomination exercise has seen some big names fall by the wayside and the trend is likely to continue during the election.
Despite the familiar challenges experienced during the nominations, the exercise has witnessed an improvement from previous ones that have been marred by controversies and chaotic organisation.
There have been murmurs over the issuance of direct tickets to candidates, but it is difficult to imagine the leading contenders heading into one of the most fiercely contested elections in Kenyan history, without their allies who have stood with them most of their political careers. Currently, the looming question on most Kenyan lips is whether Raila will finally at the fifth attempt, achieve the prize that has eluded him or will Ruto upset his long journey to Canaan.
