World Bank: How youth bulge presents greater economic opportunities

Although Kenya’s increasing youthful population seems to be a big burden to the economy amid rising unemployment, it is expected to become a force to reckon with in coming years to spur an economic revolution, a new World Bank report reveals. This comes even as the World Development Report 2023: Migrants, Refugees, and Societies, estimates that most middle-income level and low-income countries are expected to experience further rapid population growth, putting them under enhanced pressure to create more jobs for young people.

The youth bulge will see increased migration to wealthier and faster growing middle-income countries that are grappling with diminishing populations. The migrating population will increase an already big number of citizens in the diaspora.

Speaking during the launch of the report in Washington early this week, World Bank Senior Managing Director Axel van Trotsenburg said populations across the globe are aging at an unprecedented pace making many countries increasingly reliant on migration to realize their long-term growth potential.

“Migration can be a powerful force for prosperity and development,” said Trotsenburg adding, “When it is managed properly, it provides benefits for all people —in origin and destination societies.”

The bank identifies the trend as a unique opportunity to make migration work better for economies and people from the developing countries. For example, latest data from the Central Bank of Kenya reveal that Kenya’s diaspora remittances rose by 8.34 per cent to $4.027 billion in 2022, closing in on exports, which brought in $5.77 billion worth of foreign currency in the same period.

“Wealthy countries as well as a growing number of middle-income countries—traditionally among the main sources of migrants—face diminishing populations, intensifying the global competition for workers and talent.

Rapid population

Meanwhile, most low- income countries are expected to see rapid population,” it says. The percentage of working-age adults will drop sharply in many countries in countries like Spain, which has a population of 47 million, where it is projected to shrink by more than 30 per cent by 2100, with those above age 65 increasing from 20 per cent to 39 per cent of the population.

Countries like Mexico, Thailand, Tunisia and Turkey may soon need more foreign workers because their population is no longer growing.

Trotsenburg observed that the forces driving migration are also changing, making cross-border movements more diverse and complex.

Today, destination and origin countries span all income levels, with many countries such as Mexico, Nigeria, and the UK both sending and receiving migrants.