Weigh pros and cons before adopting AI technology
Consultancy companies have in recent times released reports highlighting the economic benefits of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for China and the world at large.
For instance, global GDP in 2030 will be 14 per cent higher an addition of $15.7 trillion as a result of AI thanks to improving labor productivity and increasing consumer demand owing to the fast-paced application of AI technology, says a report by consultancy company PricewaterhouseCoopers.
And an Accenture report says AI could help China’s economic growth accelerate to 7.9 per cent from 6.3 per cent by 2035, by “transforming the nature of work and opening new sources of value and growth”.
The two reports could boost the morale of policymakers and the public, and testify to the power of technology in transforming not only lives, but also economies.
However, history tells us that, while technological advancements have brought us benefits, they have also led to great social upheavals, by, for example, changing the production and labor structures, and forcing many workers to either adapt to the changes or lose jobs. In the 18th century, for instance, skilled workers rose up to resist the Industrial Revolution, with their protests culminating in the Luddite Movement that saw textile workers and weavers destroy machinery.
History should serve as a warning against the indiscriminate development and application of AI technology. While we may gain a lot of benefits from AI, we must work out plans to offset its negative impact on society, especially for workers.
In India, some technology personnel have already felt the negative impact of information technology. As industries across the world seek increasing support from automation, robotics and big data analysis, some Indian technology workers employed in service outsourcing sector have lost their jobs.
In their 2013 research study, Michael Osborne from Oxford University’s Department of Engineering Science and Carl Frey from Oxford Martin School estimated 47 percent of the jobs in the United States are “at risk” of being automated in the next 20 years. They said jobs in transportation and logistics sectors, and office and administrative support are at high risk of being automated.
And Kaifu Lee, founder of venture capital company Sinovation Ventures, who served as senior executive at Google, Microsoft and Apple, recently said robots could take away about 50 per cent of all jobs from humans in the next decade.
Those estimates may sound sensational and the impact of technological advancement may not be that serious, as it will also generate jobs in emerging industries, but still policymakers should deliberate how to embrace the technological wave to bring benefits to the economy and people while taking pre-emptive action to minimize negative impacts.
The government needs to engage with the corporate sector and social organizations and allocate more resources to promote training programs for potentially vulnerable workers and professionals, in order to make them more capable of adapting to structural changes in industries and job markets.
Regrettably, business leaders spent a lot of time talking about the potential contribution of AI to economies at the Summer Davos forum, but failed to give equal weight to the challenge of minimising its impact on society, especially job markets. Scholars and policymakers need to fill that void.
—The writer is a senior writer with China Daily —[email protected]
