Mudavadi earthquake ruffles coalition games
The aftershocks of Amani National Congress (ANC) party leader Musalia Mudavadi’s political marriage with Deputy President (DP) William Ruto continue to rumble.
A union he termed an “earthquake” during the launch of his presidential bid attended by Ruto and boycotted by his estranged co-principals in the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) has shaken the foundation of his party and national politics to the core.
While the DP and his United Democratic Alliance (UDA) appear to be the main beneficiaries of the coalition pact with ANC and Moses Wetangula’s Ford-Kenya, the matrimony has rattled Mudavadi’s party, throwing his presidential ambitions into a quandary.
Nevertheless, the rumbling aftershocks of the post-Mudavadi “earthquake” define the premier coalitions in the race to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta.
The UDA-ANC-Ford-K bloc faces a coalition of former partners-turned adversaries in Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper party, Gideon Moi’s Kanu, Martha Karua’s Narc-Kenya and Cyrus Jirongo’s United Democratic Party (DP).
National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi, endorsed as leader of Democratic Party (DP) has urged Mt Kenya leaders to organise their own unity to negotiate a future as one. Muturi accuses UDA-ANC-Ford-K of “stealing” his signature slogan ‘Kenya Kwanza’ (Kenya First) but pledges to move on under a new banner, ‘WaKenya Mbele’ (Kenyans First).
As the new coalitions unfold, they must be adequately prepared to contend with Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leader Raila “Baba” Oding, who is about to unleash “the father of all coalitions” with President Uhuru’s Jubilee Party called Azimio La Umoja Movement.
Raila whose crowd-pulling appeal at campaign rallies is only matched by Ruto’s, has perfected countrywide drives championing Azimio’s national unity slogan, with the signature reggae tune popularised by legend Bob Marley’s hit song ‘One Love’ revelling frenzied supporters.
Interestingly, campaign rallies have also turned into venues for personal attacks and character assassination platforms. Good though for truth, public consumption and scrutiny of presidential candidates’ leadership and integrity scorecards, especially on corruption.
Freedom of expression will help expose those culpable, so the guilty should be very afraid. The media has the opportunity to fact-check, cross-refer and interrogate wild allegations, false statements and propaganda some candidates are spewing with reckless abandon.
While personalised attacks and innuendos inundate public rallies, the fear is they may obfuscate key issues ahead of the General Election. With coalitions crafting manifestos whose contents are already in the public domain, the electorate must remain vigilant.
Which raises one of the key issues – ethnicity. All parties/coalitions claim to base their manifestos on uniting all Kenyan ethnic communities, regardless of regional or tribal origins yet accuse opponents of the opposite. Truth is all parties thrive on ethnic identity.
The Mudavadi-Ruto “earthquake” aftershocks confirm this fact as ANC suffers haemorrhage in the shifting dynamics of the vote-rich Western Kenya politics, his own presidential ambitions faced with a dilemma over his association with the DP.
Ruto’s open display of bitterness at President Kenyatta for leaning towards Handshake partner Raila, betrays apprehension of similar tectonic political/ethnic forces in the decisive Mt Kenya region.
The anger may have rubbed onto Mudavadi, as witnessed during their joint rallies.
Could this be linked to the President’s own “earthquake” statement during Mudavadi’s mother’s burial in January 2021?
He asked the nation then whether perhaps it was the turn of a leader from another ethnic community to lead the country other than one from the two that have led since independence. Ruto was not present at the ceremony but attended the requiem mass earlier in Nairobi.
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