Policy changes expected at CBK as top bosses exit
After nomination and expected appointment of Susan Koech to Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) executive team, attention now turns to filling positions of board members whose terms will lapse on June 18.
Three board members, including chairman Mohammed Nyaoga, Governor Patrick Njoroge and his deputy Sheila M’Mbijjewe will end their last term after serving the maximum of eight years, positions that will require to be filled in order to complete the board’s composition.
Njoroge, who was appointed Governor by retired President Uhuru Kenyatta in June 2015, has had his tenure extended once, as per the law in June 2020, with analysts viewing his monetary policies as astutely conservative and passive in effect.
Ronnie Chokaa, a financial analyst with investment bankers Genghis Capital said Njoroge’s priorities were geared more towards maintaining price stability than expanding national output, a factor that stunted growth in some of the country’s productive sectors. “If you look at the M2 (money supply) to GDP ratio over his tenure, money supply has lagged significantly behind GDP growth. As a result, some investment spending in several economic sectors were highly constrained,” he said.
Njoroge will be remembered for presiding over the highly-politicised demonetisation of the old Sh1,000 banknotes, a move Chokaa said has had far-reaching effects to date since not all conversions were effected before the set deadline, again dealing a further blow to the velocity of money in the economy.
The change of currency was also expected to enable the government crackdown on embezzlement, tackle a wave of counterfeit Sh1,000 notes in circulation and address the concern of illicit financial flows in the country and across Kenya’s borders. The exercise culminated in over Sh7.4 billion transferred to the Government’s Consolidated Fund.
His decision to lower the base lending rates during the Covid-19 pandemic has been lauded, as it enabled banks to reduce the cost of credit during those harsh times, though he will also be remembered as a governor who highly favoured Tier 1 banks that experienced exponential growth, sometimes even at the expense of lower tier banks and microfinance institutions.
“He certainly did his best, as governor, given the circumstances and trade-offs he had to weigh. His experience at the International Monetary Fund greatly shaped and moulded his leadership at CBK,” Chokaa said.
In terms of policy, the Genghis analyst expects the incoming Governor to balance considerations of economic growth with price stability, shore up and maintain adequate dollar reserves and consistently monitor for dollar hoarding and speculation by commercial banks and foreign exchange bureaus.
“I anticipate, too, that restrictions placed on microfinance institutions and Saccos will be eased to allow greater natural expansion. Further, I anticipate that money supply will grow in tandem with GDP growth,” he said adding.
In addition, Chokaa said it was also his expectation that the regulator will regain control of the interest rate environment in terms of controlling the cost of borrowing.
To date, the advent of risk-based lending continues to elicit mixed debate on what the method portends for keeping borrowing costs stable and predictable, he added.
“I want a Central Bank that’s able to assert control over the financial market, and not cede their control to commercial banks,” said Chokaa.
Besides Njoroge, M’Mbijjewe and chairman Nyaoga will also be exiting after also serving in their position for eight years.
